Intelligence Report: Analyzing the US Midterm Elections Through SNS AI Analysis

Sakana AI, which works on defense and intelligence alongside finance, describes an analysis of about 710,000 reactions to 2,042 X posts from both candidates and both parties' state organizations in the Texas Senate race, using its narrative analysis system and its Sakana Marlin product to cross-check X observations against polling, campaign finance, prediction markets and news. It says much of the "support" for Paxton before the Republican runoff was intra-party mobilization and fell from about 50% to under 20% after the runoff, and that shifts in evaluations of the candidates appeared about two months before major raters such as the Cook Political Report changed their judgments. The report argues such findings require human-AI collaboration, with AI deriving hypotheses from data at a scale humans cannot read and humans examining them and making final judgments.